The Game Is Rigged

So I'm out having dinner with some friends last week, discussing all manner of things, when the talk turns to economics. I gave my usual anti-economist rant... when one of the chaps asked a simple question:

HIM: If I flip a coin 99 times, and it lands heads each time, what are the odds it will land heads the 100th time?

ME: Well, the obvious answer is that it doesn't matter how the coin landed the previous 99 times... the odds are always 50/50 that it will land heads again. However, I have a problem... its extremely unlikely that a fair coin would land heads 99 times in a row... so I'd estimate 90/10 that it will land heads again.

HIM: ...you are the first person I ever met who answered like that...

This is one of the reasons that I don't like traditional economic theory... all games involving money will some day be rigged. Poker, major league baseball, the Olympics, sumo wrestling, sales predictions, the stock market, everything! The Freakonomics guys look into cheating, but not many others do... and if it weren't for their fame, they'd still be mocked as not being "real" economists.

It doesn't matter how grand your economic theories are... or how perfect the math looks. It doesn't matter how many metrics you have, or how grand your enterprise business intelligence system is. There's always something hidden from the model. Hidden assets, hidden liabilities, intentionally incorrect data, etc. Anyone with street smarts will be able to rig the system... and it will take another with street smarts to notice.

Unfortunately, people with street smarts are more likely to cash in on the rigged system, instead of fixing it... especially on Wall Street. The term there is IBGYBG: I'll Be Gone, You'll Be Gone. Find the scam, don't rock the boat, cash in, and leave... this gave us the tech boom, Enron, insurance broker scams, the Housing bubble, etc... at least we have short sellers who cash in by exposing rigged systems.

I hope and pray that these short sellers will rescue us from the latest tech bubble... Facebook is valued at $15 billion: almost as much as Ford! That smells like fraud... and Fake Steve Jobs illustrates how it works. All Captain Fleece has to do is spread around stock to the tech analysts, and they swoon over how Facebook will change the world. The IPO happens, dittoheads like Scoble get rich, and everybody else loses.

The game is rigged, my friends... and you're not in on it. Stay away from the latest tech boom, especially Facebook, unless you fully appreciate how rigged it is...

Comments

The issue with theory and

The issue with theory and system is not that the system is rigged or that only "cheaters" get ahead or can game the system as you seem to suggest. Rigging the system presupposes that there are some set of "fair" rules that equally apply to everyone. Not so. Cheating presumes that you are "going against the rules". Much of our economic system rewards people who play by the "rules" but take advantage of little known rules or ways of playing. The system of catching people who break the rules is actually pretty good. So the fact that the economic system is like a coin that lands heads up 99 of 100 times suggests not that the game is rigged but that our expectations of a 50/50 chance of heads is flawed.

Set your expectations right, bet that way (all playing by the rules) and you"win".

Your logic justifies fraud

You define cheating as that which is against the "laws" of the system, no matter how Draconian they may be... I define cheating as that which is damaging to the system if everyone does it (aka, morally wrong).

Libertarians believe that there should be no laws, except in the case of force or fraud. They also make it clear that even if something is legal, it can still be fraud. There's no doubt in my mind that a lot of this cheating is legal: the people who cheat are the same people who make the rules. They know the loopholes, because they put them there! For many decades, it was perfectly legal for baseball players to take steroids... but it's still fraud.

Modern economic theory strongly believes the entire economy depends on trust... The only reason to work together to make a better world is the trust that I have in the system to treat me fairly. If fraudsters manipulate the system for profit, it doesn't matter if what they do is legal. Its perceived as unfair, and the economy as a whole suffers. People won't invest if the system is unfair... whether its legal unfairness, or illegal unfairness.

These fraudsters do not deserve praise for cheating people in clever, legal ways... that's pure Sophistry. America is better than that.

People won't invest?

Poppycock. You say the system is unfair. I agree the system is unfair, and yet...
The issue is *perceived* to be (at least mostly) fair. People perceive that the possibilities of getting some reward for their investment is mostly decent (or about even). And so people invest, VC firms invest, the "system" rewards, and trust is *mostly* maintained.

You say that "cheating" is that which is damaging to the system if everyone does it. There are a couple of issues with this (aside from the philosophical arguments against such a Kantian categorical imperative applied to economic systems). Your definition of cheating still presupposes a definition of "system" which, since we're talking about economics, is a non-intrinsic system - meaning that it is something that does not define itself (like, say, the systems observed and measured by astronomers). It is still defined by a set of rules. The breaking of which would be "cheating". The system may (does, many argue) have internal and possibly fatal flaws that are permissible but not healthy for the system - especially if - as you point out, everyone did them. This is why those "in the know" have an interest in keeping the entry point of their advantages secret or setting the bar high enough to limit those who can participate. Again, not ideal for the system but not cheating, illegal or fraudulent.

At worst we can say they / we are "impolite", "greedy", unfair etc. But cheating or fraudsters - no.

we have to get over the notion that unfairness = cheating/fraud/illegal. Sometimes unfairness is simply, unfair.

tolerance of unfairness is bad for capitalism

When Jim Cramer talked bluntly about how hedge funds manipulate the stock market, it caused a near panic. Similar to the scandals about Enron, Tyco, and insurance company bid rigging... and what of the latest scandals about how mortgage companies conspired with realtors to inflate the value of houses? People had to take out bigger loans, and the realtors told them the house prices would never go down. Lots of "greedy" people found innovative ways to work the rules of the system and got rich... are you actually praising these people?

Were their actions legal? Maybe. Unfair? Certainly. Fraud? Possibly... By definition, if there's no meeting of the minds on an agreement where money changes hands, that's grounds for fraud. Its a fuzzy line, and a jury will need to decide...

The constant cry is that these fraudulent scandals hurt the capitalistic system, because fraud scares away the kinds of investors that the system needs. Capital markets only work for the benefit of people when capital shifts from one company / industry / market to another, based on new ideas and products. It should reward innovation, those who recognize intrinsic value, and those who find opportunities before others. It should not reward greedy fraudsters who look for clever ways to keep liabilities off their balance sheets... nor should it reward those boiler room bozos who foist penny stocks on the elderly.

A lot of what they do is legal... because they write the laws. But, what they do hurts the system. Its always unfair, and quite frequently fraud...

Again, this is America. We can do better.

clarification...

I'm sensing that you're hesitant to criticize "unfairness," because then that could be used as a crutch for those too lazy to do the hard research. For example, if a contract is obviously unfair, but one party is too damn stupid to read it, then we shouldn't call it "fraud"... we should just say "well, you should have read the damn contract!"

To a point, I agree... but only if there was at least an attempt at a meeting of the minds... and the contract wasn't intentionally vague... and there was full disclosure... and the huckster wasn't taking advantage of a vulnerable person. Its a fuzzy line.

I also wish the public high schools did a better job of preparing folks for the business world. Contracts, mortgages, investment, saving accounts, etc. For purely selfish reasons, naturally... if too many idiots make bad investments, they can create a recession. Also, a foreclosed house invites the wrong element into the neighborhood, affecting even those who made smart investments in their homes.

I don't know what the answer is, but I strongly feel that by focusing on improving the fairness of the system, we'll improve the overall economy.

Coin Collecting

Bex, you're right. It is rigged. Those with intelligence to see the rigginess will succeed, while those who don't won't. It is Darwinian economic survival pressure. Of course this is the way it works. Can you conceive of a way that it would actually work otherwise? Knowing people, I can't.

I think the importance you

I think the importance you place on definition is what's wrong here. We're not looking at what cheating means, but rather if cheating, fraud, whatever-you-want-to-call it can be justified for positive moral means.

Re: I think the importance you

Interesting...

We're not looking at what cheating means, but rather if cheating, fraud, whatever-you-want-to-call it can be justified for positive moral means.

Those who can justify fraud, can also justify murder.

Assume the "noble goal" is to steal from the "ignorant masses" and give to the "elite" who could do something "positively moral" with the ill gotten gains. The ignorant masses don't care about "positive moral" goals; they care about the fact that they might be destitute and broke because of some wall street scam. People might dies because of lack of money, in which case this thief caused significant harm.

Therefore, in the same way that the con man justified theft, the ignorant masses justify the murder of the thief.

I'm not going to get in the right/wrong debate here... I'll simply reiterate that there's probably a better way...

Why the hate on Econ?

I fail to understand why you're hating on Economics so much here. Literally all the behavior you're talking about can be explained with economics. Steven Levitt, "the Freakonomics guy" is one of a great many economists who study the economics of crime; it's not a little niche he carved out, his book just generated a lot of interest outside economists who had been reading each others' works for years because of the abortion chapter (which was later proved wrong, by the way). Half of what you're talking about is game theory, and the rest is just where very basic economic models don't suffice - not necessarily where they completely break down. I mean Behavioral Economics is great, and you'd probably like it a lot more than traditional economics, because it DOES talk about where the models break down, but you still have to understand the underlying models and assumptions so you can understand comparative statics. You've got to walk before you can run.

However, if you did understand economics, you'd see that your supposition that "there's always something hidden from the model" and somebody smart will come along to take advantage of it does have some truth in it - if there is something that can be taken advantage of, chances are someone will do so, and do so quickly. But that's just arbitrage, which is making an economic profit (as opposed to a profit on the books). But it's not economists and their models who are blind to these opportunities. Economists are the ones who are most likely to find them without being specialists in a field, not some random guy with "street smarts" who happens to be in the area. Police understand a lot of implicit rules about crime that economists can figure out just by modeling incentives. The same holds true with education boards and economists. In fact, Levitt found evidence of cheating by Chicago area teachers because he looked at their INCENTIVES, and figured out they'd be likely to cheat. He tested to see if they were, and lo and behold, an economist figured out how people were gaming the system.

Seriously man. Go trash anthropology or something. But economics? If you think it's frivolous you're either misunderstanding something or you're stuck in an undergraduate intro course.

Re: Why the hate on Econ?

If you think it's frivolous you're either misunderstanding something or you're stuck in an undergraduate intro course.

Well, that's a bit of a false dichotomy... I'm not the only person in the world who "hates on econ," as you say. In fact, most economists themselves are fairly self-deprecating about how sketchy their field is.

Joan Robinson said that the purpose of studying economics is to avoid being deceived by economists. Herbert Stein said economists do not know very much, politicians know even less, and the amount of economics you need to understand to make good public policy is in the average introductory undergraduate course on economics.

I tend to agree with them both... I do like behavioral economics, otherwise I wouldn't have enjoyed "The Origin of Wealth" as much as I did. The Freakonomics book was only OK. What I "hate" is all the advanced economic models to generate wealth that are about as good as an educated guess... and yet folks build entire houses of cards on them... If more people distrusted economists, we might not have had the whole CDO debacle on Wall Street.

The Human Race is Doomed

The human race deserves to be enslaved or destroyed by the first more intelligent species to discover the Planet Earth. They may decide to spray the planet, much as we do now to eradicate other pests. We waste time and life getting over on one another, while the population keeps growing. Resources can only go so far on a single planet. We have no viable way of maintaining life on this planet indefinitely, nor is conservation even the answer--it's just an idea the marketing rats use to appear caring and good while they are fleecing your pockets. We all deserved to be killed for our incredible lack of perspective and selfishness toward the future of the human race. We are a stupid race and deserve to die.

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